Carlos Alcaraz's dream of defending his US Open crown is looking increasingly fragile, with a prominent injury prevention expert expressing serious reservations about the Spaniard's readiness to compete at Flushing Meadows.
Stephen Smith, founder and CEO of Kitman Labs, described as the world's leading sports science and performance intelligence company, told Tennis365 in an exclusive interview that he would be flat-out shocked to see Alcaraz take to the courts in New York. Smith cited the brutal combination of factors at the US Open as uniquely dangerous for a player returning from a lengthy absence: the intense heat and humidity, the hardest court surface of any major, and the physically punishing best-of-five format that can stretch matches well beyond four hours.
For someone managing a soft tissue or bone issue, Smith argued, hard courts provide the least protection of all Grand Slam surfaces. He also noted that a player of Alcaraz's calibre would likely be pushed deep into long matches precisely because opponents know they must fight for every point against him.
The backdrop makes Smith's concerns entirely understandable. Alcaraz has been sidelined since April with a right wrist injury, missing both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters and has no scheduled tournaments before the US Open begins on August 30. While he remains on the entry list and could theoretically take a wildcard at the Winston-Salem ATP 250 event the preceding week, that option seems unlikely.
The stakes are enormous. Alcaraz is the reigning champion, having beaten Jannik Sinner in the 2025 final for his second New York title. He also made history earlier in 2026 by completing the career Grand Slam at the Australian Open, becoming the youngest man ever to achieve that milestone.
TennisDraw users have largely flagged Alcaraz's participation as uncertain when filling out their US Open bracket predictions.
