The Canadian Open is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable Masters events in recent memory after both Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic confirmed they will not be competing in Montreal. Combined with Carlos Alcaraz's ongoing absence, only seven of the world's top ten are set to participate, leaving a significant void at the top of the draw.
The withdrawals have reignited debate about the pressures of the modern tennis calendar. Andy Murray flagged this exact scenario at the Madrid Open last year, warning ATP organisers that penalties for skipping Masters events were simply not strong enough to compel top players to show up. His comments proved remarkably prescient. Murray noted that current consequences, ranging from ranking point deductions to financial fines, are relatively mild. As he put it, missing a Masters event essentially amounts to a zero-pointer on your ranking, which he described as "not a big deal" for established stars.
So who benefits from all this star power stepping aside? Alexander Zverev enters Montreal as the clear frontrunner. Fresh off winning Roland Garros and reaching his first Wimbledon final, the German is playing some of the finest tennis of his career. He last won the Canadian Open back in 2017, defeating Roger Federer along the way, but conditions this year are far more favorable for another deep run.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will carry enormous home-crowd energy in Montreal, and despite historically modest results at this specific tournament, his hardcourt credentials are well established. His US Open semifinal run last year is a reminder of his ceiling on this surface. Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, will be eager to convert opportunity into hardware after failing to capitalize on similar circumstances at Roland Garros and Wimbledon this season.
TennisDraw users leaning on Zverev for the Canadian Open title might just be onto something this time around.
