Carlos Alcaraz is staring down one of the toughest possible US Open draws after sliding to third in the ATP Rankings, a dramatic fall driven entirely by an injury layoff that has kept him off tour since before the clay-court season.
The two-time US Open champion missed a staggering run of events including the Madrid Open, Italian Open, French Open, Queen's Club Championship, Wimbledon, and the upcoming Canadian Open. That absence drained over 5,000 ranking points in roughly three months, with the French Open (2,000 points), Wimbledon (1,300), and Italian Open (1,000) accounting for the largest chunks.
With Jannik Sinner locked in at the top seed and Alexander Zverev, fresh off his French Open title, sitting second, Alcaraz will almost certainly enter Flushing Meadows as the third seed. That positioning creates a nightmare scenario: a potential semi-final clash with Sinner and a final against Zverev, rather than the title-match showdowns fans have come to expect from the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry. Notably, their last eight meetings have all come in finals, with the 2024 French Open semi-final being the last time they met before that stage.
Making matters worse, Novak Djokovic currently sits seventh in the rankings, meaning the 24-time Grand Slam champion and Alcaraz could collide as early as the quarter-finals at Flushing Meadows.
There is cautious optimism around Alcaraz's return, as his name appears on the Cincinnati Open entry list, signaling a planned comeback. However, he is the defending champion there and will shed another 1,000 points regardless of his performance, making a climb back to second before the US Open extremely unlikely.
TennisDraw users tracking Alcaraz's bracket positioning will want to keep a close eye on the official seedings once Cincinnati concludes.
