A Four-Way Fight for the Top Spot
The WTA rankings race heading into the 2026 US Open is as tight and dramatic as anything seen in recent memory. Aryna Sabalenka enters the New York hard-court Grand Slam as the current number one, sitting on 8,575 points after 104 total weeks at the top of the rankings. Elena Rybakina sits second on 8,141, while Jessica Pegula (7,265) and Coco Gauff (6,704) round out a genuinely competitive top four.
Gauff's Cincinnati Open title gave her an impressive 785-point boost, helping her leap into the number one conversation. Pegula, who finished runner-up to Gauff at that same event, added 585 points to her tally. Rybakina, however, had a difficult Cincinnati run, retiring injured during her quarter-final against Iga Swiatek and actually losing 175 ranking points in the process.
Why Sabalenka Faces the Toughest Path
The cruelest twist for Sabalenka is that she is the defending US Open champion. Because the WTA uses a rolling 52-week points system, she will shed 2,000 points the moment the tournament begins. That immediately compresses the field, with her effective starting total dropping to 6,575 points compared to Rybakina's 7,966.
Rybakina has the clearest route to number one: she only needs to reach the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows to claim the ranking crown, regardless of what the others do. Sabalenka, Pegula, and Gauff would all need to win the title outright and hope Rybakina exits before the final four.
There is added uncertainty around Rybakina herself, as she reportedly struggled to walk after her Cincinnati injury and was absent from practice lists ahead of the event. TennisDraw bracket users are closely watching all four players, making this one of the most contested number one predictions the app has seen this season.
