Sabalenka's Title Defense Could Cost Her the Top Spot
Aryna Sabalenka arrives at the 2026 US Open carrying the weight of a full 2,000-point defense after claiming her second US Open crown last year, defeating Amanda Anisimova 6-3, 7-6 in the final. Under the WTA's rolling 52-week points system, those points vanish from her tally the moment the tournament begins, dropping her effective ranking total from 8,575 to 6,575. That slide would push Elena Rybakina ahead of her into the world number one position in the live rankings. Sabalenka's only route back to the top is winning the title outright, and even then, Rybakina's own results could complicate matters. The pressure on the four-time Grand Slam champion is immense.
Several Big Names Scrambling to Hold Their Ground
Sabalenka is far from alone in facing ranking anxiety at Flushing Meadows. Anisimova, who reached the final last year after also finishing runner-up at Wimbledon, sits at number 10 in the rankings and will almost certainly fall out of the top ten once her 1,300 defending points are removed. Meanwhile, Jessica Pegula and Naomi Osaka both have 780 points on the line after reaching the semifinals in 2025. Pegula has a tantalizing incentive, as winning the title could lift her to world number one, though she needs outside results to cooperate. Osaka, currently ranked 13th, would likely need to reach at least the final to climb meaningfully. Iga Swiatek, sitting at number eight, is defending 430 points from a quarterfinal exit and needs a deep run just to maintain her current standing.
With so much riding on every match, TennisDraw users will find bracket predictions especially fascinating this fortnight given the ranking chaos that could unfold.
