Carlos Alcaraz has been absent from the tour since withdrawing from the Barcelona Open with a wrist injury, and questions are swirling about whether the seven-time Grand Slam champion can return to his peak level immediately. Many pundits have been skeptical, suggesting a prolonged layoff makes a deep run at a major tournament unlikely. But a look back at Alcaraz's own recent history tells a rather encouraging story.
In late 2022, Alcaraz suffered an abdominal injury during a Paris Masters match against Holger Rune, ending his season prematurely and keeping him sidelined until February 2023. The circumstances mirror his current situation closely. What happened next, however, was remarkable. He returned to win the Buenos Aires title, reached the final in Rio de Janeiro (falling to Cameron Norrie), then swept through Indian Wells and advanced to the Miami semifinals. On clay, he added titles at Barcelona and Madrid. In total, Alcaraz won four titles across six tournaments, going 29 wins from 31 matches during that stretch. That is the kind of form most players only dream about, let alone produce after five months on the sidelines.
Alcaraz is currently listed for the Cincinnati Open in mid-August, which would serve as his warm-up ahead of the US Open. If he follows anything close to his 2023 blueprint, he could arrive in New York in strong shape.
Still, the challenge at the top of the rankings is formidable. Sinner has built a reported gap of over 5,000 ranking points, a deficit that would require sustained, dominant tennis to claw back. The rivalry between these two is far from over, but Alcaraz has real ground to make up. TennisDraw users will be watching his Cincinnati draw closely as a key early indicator of his form.
